Gerrymandering reduced the number of traditional swing seats on the board this year. But the potential for a sizable Republican wave has turned many otherwise-safe seats into competitive battlegrounds.
One of the paradoxes in breaking down the map of House races this year: Gerrymandering reduced the number of traditional swing seats on the board. But the potential for a sizable Republican wave has turned many otherwise-safe seats into competitive battlegrounds.In 2020, there were 51 House districts that backed either President Biden or former President Trump by five points or less. This year, only 34 districts fit those categories.
"Success this cycle required us to expand the map into double-digit Biden territory," said Dan Conston, president of the McCarthy-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund. To that end, CLF spent a total of $57.7 million in races that Biden carried by double digits, according to Conston. That's nearly four times the amount of money the super PAC spent in districts Trump carried .Several of the states in which Democrats controlled the redistricting process could end up becoming "dummymanders" — a term describing an attempted gerrymander that backfires.
found Republicans were ahead in three of the four statewide House seats, with Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford in a close contest against Republican Sam Peters in the fourth., the Democratic-drawn political map is suddenly looking a bit shaky. Republicans are running competitively in the seat of retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos. Meanwhile, the Cook Political ReportThe bottom line:
If Democrats lose control of their House majority, gerrymandering won't be the culprit. The political environment will often disrupt the best-laid plans of both parties.
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