Thanks to redistricting, there are fewer tightly divided districts than ever. Republicans are likely to benefit more than Democrats, after they pushed through aggressive, seat-flipping gerrymanders in states such as Florida.
decried saltily last year
It is looking better for Democrats in New Mexico, where the new maps give challenger Gabe Vazquez a shot at unseating Rep. Yvette Herrell in the state’s 2nd District — which went from being a district Trump won by 12 percentage points to one Biden won by nearly 6 — while Republicans have not made major investments in the state’s other two districts.
Under the old map, former President Donald Trump won 15 of 27 districts — 55 percent — in 2020 while winning just over 51 percent of the vote overall statewide. Under the new map, Trump would have won 20 of 28 districts. Among the Democratic incumbents likely to be forced out is Rep. Al Lawson , who was pushed into a member-on-member matchup with Rep. Neal Dunn in the northern part of the state, after his plurality-black district was eliminated.
Democrats’ attempts at similarly aggressive gerrymandering in New York was struck down by courts, although the party was able to draw favorable maps in Illinois, where they could pick up as many as two seats if they hang onto all the new districts won by Biden, including the
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