Under a warming climate, trends suggest that these kinds of 'rain-on-snow' flood events will become more common.
The region has seen floods before, but not of this magnitude, says Sierra Harris, climate change coordinator at the conservation-focused nonprofit Greater Yellowstone Coalition. Under a warming climate, trends suggest that these kinds of events will become more common—which will have major implications for future park infrastructure and local communities.Rainfall and snowmelt were the main factors contributing to the flood’s severity, creating what experts call a ‘rain-on-snow’ event.
. Cathy Whitlock, earth science professor at Montana State University and another coauthor of the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment, points to two reasons in particular. First, snowmelt will occur earlier and melt faster, which will lead to more spring flooding. Second, rain-on-snow events will happen at higher altitudes, as elevations that are now dominated by snow will instead experience more rain.
Harris says this flood is waking some people up to the increasingly intense climate variability in the area. For her, it’s ironic that the flood is drawing national awareness and conversations around climate change when drought is one of the main issues impacting the Greater Yellowstone area. While floods typically indicate an excess of water, in this case, they can herald potential issues for drought, too, Harris suggests.
“I think this [flood] is indicative of dramatic changes on their way,” Harris says. She’s currently working on ways to store water runoff to use later in the summer. “We have a chance to mitigate and the time is now to make changes.”
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