The 10-year Treasury yield isn't likely to push far above 3.85% for the rest of this year unless three things happen, according to BCA strategists.
The 10-year Treasury yield isn’t likely to push much above 3.85% for the rest of this year, unless three things happen, according to BCA Research.
The benchmark 10-year rate TMUBMUSD10Y reclaimed the 3.85% mark in late May and has roughly held in that range in June, following a sharp drop in bond yields this spring after Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse in March sparked fears of broader instability at regional banks.
The yearly rate of U.S. inflation, as measured by the consumer-price index, slowed to 4% in May after peaking above 9% last summer, even though the core rate has been harder to tame. “We also believe that inflation will be soft enough for the Fed to deliver less tightening than it currently forecasts, but there is a material risk that both us and the market are misjudging the Fed’s inflation-fighting resolve,” wrote the BCA team led by U.S. bond strategist Ryan Swift.
Stocks closed lower Tuesday, after recently hitting their highest levels in over a year, as investors awaited Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to kick off two days of congressional testimony on monetary policy on Wednesday, including potentially offering more insights into the outlook for interest rates for the rest of 2023.
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