OPINION: There's no reason to think the U.S. would let us go easily. California is too rich in resources, capital, real estate and industries. Without us, the U.S. would be a much poorer country, and all but the most MAGA-addled minds understand that.
In the weeks since the Supreme Court handed down two major decisions — on Dobbs v. Jackson, handing abortion rights decisions to the states, and on New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen, ruling that states could not pass restrictive laws on guns — people and pundits are again discussing the possibility of California seceding from the U.S. A CalExit if you will.
Yet CalExit is a uniquely terrible idea, which would weaken economies and create civil unrest in both California and the U.S. it left behind. California is too rich in resources, capital, real estate and industries for the U.S. to let it go. The U.S. without California would be a much poorer country, and all but the most MAGA-addled minds understand that.
If California tried to seize those resources, the U.S. would likely respond with violence, but if California turned its military might over to the U.S., then the new country would be unable to defend itself. One solution would be to allow the U.S. military presence to remain in California, but that would undermine the project of California’s independence.
The politics of CalExit are further complicated because California is not as solidly progressive as many would like to think. In the 2020 election, Donald Trump got almost 35% of the vote in California. No state in the country produced more votes for Trump than California — it nosed out Texas for that dubious honor by about 110,00 votes. One out of every 13 votes Trump got in 2020 came from California.
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