Economic and policy factors both play a role
A colleague was looking into doing a project on Social Security’s Disability Insurance program, so it forced me to take a look. If you listened to conversations on DI, you would get the impression that the problem is out of control and the highest national priority is getting these people off the rolls and back to work.
First, legislation passed in 1984 broadened the definition of disability and provided applicants and medical providers with greater opportunity to influence the decision process. Third, the secular rise in female labor force participation increased the fraction of women eligible by their work history for disability benefits and they, too, aged into the higher incidence rates.
Indeed, recent data suggest that the trajectory of the program has shifted. After peaking in 2014, the stock of beneficiaries has been declining . Note, we’re not talking about percentages here; these data refer to the absolute number of people. Fewer people are receiving DI benefits today than in 2014.
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