The jockeying among states to be first could have big implications for the race.
We don’t yet know who would benefit from lengthier time between contests, but Joe Biden’s victory in the South Carolina primary in 2020 led some of his biggest rivals to speedily drop out and endorse him ahead of the Super Tuesday slate of primaries on March 3, just three days later.
One of the biggest questions this cycle is around Iowa. In 2020, the Iowa caucuses were held on Feb. 3, just a month before Super Tuesday. This time, the caucuses could realistically be as early as Jan. 8, though the week after is considered more likely. Super Tuesday still wouldn’t be until March 5.
“With the Democrats shifting the states in their early window lineup, that’s created some pressure on the states in the Republican process — namely Iowa and New Hampshire — to move up to even earlier dates,” said Josh Putnam, an expert on delegate-selection rules who runs the website Frontloading HQ. “That’s creating a spread that we haven’t seen in the last couple of cycles, when the national parties were kind of on the same page.
In setting their new calendar, the DNC not only gave South Carolina the coveted No. 1 slot — it also set a date for the first Saturday in February: Feb. 3, 2024.
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