What can polls tell us? (Not a lot.) Why did ballot measures favor abortion rights while abortion rights opponents won handily? (It's complicated.) And more lessons from the midterms.
"Almost everywhere, what you saw was a pretty significant surge in gender gap in the two to four weeks after Dobbs," Bonier said."And then we saw an increase, but not as pronounced after that."women were motivated. Exit polls broadly suggest that young women broke hard for Democrats. But then, a post-election survey from AARP also showed that women over 65 swung significantly toward Democrats between July and November.
And yet in some of those places, pro-life candidates also prevailed. As Democratic strategist Rachel Bitecofer puts it:"There are millions of people who voted yes for a referendum to codifyFurthermore, plenty of politicians who famously favored restricting abortion easily won — Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott, for example, and Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis.
Longwell, from the Republican Accountability Project, says that for many voters, it's also simply about the salience of abortion. Multiple Democratic strategists agree that staying away from gestational limits was smart, though they often do not see it as painting Republicans as overly extreme, like Republicans do.
The question is what Republicans do with that information — what they see as a winnable mainstream position? In the midterms, many Republican candidates avoided the topic of abortion. To Dannenfelser, that was a mistake.
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