What the latest omicron subvariants mean for reinfection risk

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What the latest omicron subvariants mean for reinfection risk
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In the U.S., the BA.2.12.1 subvariant is gaining a foothold, while South Africa is seeing a surge in cases from two other subvariants, BA.4 and BA.5.

Still, research shows antibodies obtained from vaccination or infection gradually wane over time, and each new omicron subvariant, though still a part of the larger omicron family tree, is slightly different from the last, meaning a person's ability to fight off infections from the virus can shift.

“We’re now in a situation where some people can be infected and some people can’t,” he said. “Those people who can get infected vary in terms of the probability that they’re going to be seriously ill.” In general, people who have been vaccinated appear to have the best protection against the new omicron subvariants, said Alex Sigal, a virologist at the Africa Health Research Institute in South Africa.by South African scientists on Friday that suggested people previously infected with the original omicron strain don't appear to have much immunity against BA.4 and BA.5 infections.

The subvariants were able to evade the antibodies from both unvaccinated and vaccinated people, suggesting the virus can get past the immune system's first line of defense and cause an infection. But there were some notable differences: In unvaccinated samples, there was a nearly eightfold drop in antibodies against BA.4. and BA.5, compared with the original omicron strain; in vaccinated samples, there was only about threefold decrease.

Even if vaccinated people get infected"with these new lineages, my speculation is it's going to be mild," he said.Monday by researchers in China looked at BA.4. and BA.5, as well as BA.2.12.1, the omicron subvariant currently gaining traction in the U.S. The data overall suggests the omicron subvariants are more antibody resistant than previous strains and could"pose additional problems for vaccinated and/or infected people," Moore said.

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