Leaders are now discussing sanctions on Russian oil, including a possible boycott. Here is what such a move could mean for people in Europe and the rest of the world.
It’s harder to find alternative sources of natural gas because it comes mainly by pipeline. It would be easier to find other sources for oil, which mostly moves by tanker and is traded globally.
But it would take time for global markets to make that adjustment. In Europe, customers might scramble to reverse the usual east-west movement of oil using rail, truck and river barge. Refineries making gasoline and other products are set up for Russia’s particular kind of oil. Several major refineries depend on a pipeline from Russia.
Phasing in a ban over the rest of the year would be one way to prevent shortages. Germany has already said it plans to end Russian oil imports by year’s end. The OPEC oil cartel led by Saudi Arabia — which sets production levels along with allied non-members like Russia — has made it clear it won’t increase output to make up for any supply loss from Russia due to a boycott.
In the most severe scenario of a loss of Russia’s 3.8 million barrels to Europe and other countries refusing its oil, a huge price spike to $180 per barrel could happen, followed by a sharp fall due to declining demand and economic growth. However, “that does not look like it’s going to be the case,” Galimberti said.
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