The US Dollar continues to falter as yields edge lower, while an extension of the current short-covering in the Japanese Yen also weighs on the greenback. Get your market update from JMcQueenFX here:
market pricing is more certain that the BoE will hike 50bps, currently a 78.3% probability.ultimately been a hawkish disappointment relative to market expectations, hence the Pound has generally moved lower in reaction.
To me, I think we see another hawkish disappointment, EVEN IF the BoE hikes 50bps, which I lean towards. Firstly, we have seen aggressive hikes from most G10 central banks, including RBA, RBNZ, BoC, ECB and the Fed.
As such, I would expect a 50bps hike with a dovish/cautious statement, resulting in initial gains being faded, particularly with the fact that markets remain far too aggressive on BoE policy going forward . What's more, there is also the vote split, I can't imagine that being a 9-0 vote for 50bps, would expect the likes of Cunliffe and Tenreyro to opt for 25bps.
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