The Ukrainian military is now 'at the most dangerous point' of the second phase of its war with Russia, KofmanMichael tells realaxelfoley, but he also warns against 'undue pessimism' about Ukraine's chances
A Ukrainian serviceman in the Donetsk region walks as grain silos burn after Russian shelling. Photo: Serhii Nuzhnenko/REUTERS In February, Ukraine shocked the world by driving Russian forces from Kyiv, fending off Vladimir Putin’s attempt to quickly capture the country. Almost four months later, the war has settled into a bloody slog that is now largely focused in the Donbas, in Ukraine’s east.
So the Russian approach has been to essentially grind their way toward incremental territorial gains. The Ukrainian strategy, thus far in the second phase, has been to try to exhaust Russian forces, leverage urban terrain, and fight for every piece of it in order to inflict the maximum amount of casualties so that the Russian offensive eventually runs out of steam.
Right now, it’s very premature to assess the trajectory of the war. More than likely, after this period of fighting, there will be an operational pause. Both sides will try to rearm, refit, and replenish their forces. Then Ukraine is likely to attempt a counteroffensive, but it will be easier to gauge whether Ukraine can take back substantial amounts of territory once it’s significantly armed with western weapons.
Russian forces have been degraded, and, as we’ve discussed, its original invasion strategy was ill considered. It also seems that Putin is not somebody who’s going to take the half-win of simply capturing territory in eastern Ukraine. But does he even have the capability to make another push into central and western Ukraine?
The other element of this is that the war is also obviously having a huge effect on the energy market and the market for other goods.Yeah, I don’t have to tell you. Europe is suffering far worse than the U.S. in this regard, and European leaders seem a little less patient about the trajectory of the war. President Biden has said that he wouldn’t pressure Zelenskyy into establishing peace talks.
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