The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal to increase biofuel blending mandates through 2025 would lead to a near-term increase in greenhouse gas emissions, before yielding reductions in the longer-term, according to agency documents.
The Renewable Fuel Standard requires the nation’s oil refiners to add billions of gallons of biofuels like corn-based ethanol into the fuel pool each year in a policy intended to help farmers, reduce energy imports, and combat climate change.
That’s the climate equivalent of driving between 17.5 million and 57 million vehicles for one year, according to the EPA's greenhouse gas equivalences calculator. “Overall, based on the wide range of lifecycle GHG estimates in the scientific literature, the proposed volumes of renewable fuel are estimated to reduce GHG emissions,” the agency said in an emailed statement. It said it would be “inappropriate to truncate the analysis after 3 years.”
Geoff Cooper, the head of the Renewable Fuels Association biofuel trade group, criticized the EPA projections. In the EPA's analysis, the ethanol portion of the volumes mandates could yield a net impact on emissions of anywhere between negative 99 million metric tons to positive 13.8 million metric tons over 30 years.
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