Bond yields fell on Wednesday after cooler-than-forecast U.K. inflation bolstered the narrative that central banks will soon be done raising interest rates.
What’s happeningWhat’s driving markets Data from the U.K. showing consumer price inflation fell in June to a less-than-expected 7.9% — its lowest level in more than a year — sparked a dip in government bond yields across Europe and the U.S..What’s happening What’s driving markets Data from the U.K. showing consumer price inflation fell in June to a less-than-expected 7.9% — its lowest level in more than a year — sparked a dip in government bond yields across Europe and the U.S..
But not yet. Markets are pricing in a 99.8% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.50% after its meeting on July 26, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The central bank is not expected to take its Fed funds rate target back down to around 5% until April 2024, according to 30-day Fed Funds futures.
What are analysts saying “Evidence is emerging that U.S. growth could hold up even though inflation does seem to be subsiding. Diminishing headwinds from monetary and fiscal policy tightening, strong consumer income growth, and an emerging bottom in the housing and manufacturing sectors suggest that positive growth impulses may overcome the drag from reduced bank lending in the months ahead,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
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