Historically, May is the most active month for tornadoes across the Lower 48. While nothing is set in stone, signs point to next week becoming increasingly busy — and by then, the annual peak in tornado activity will have arrived.
The high pressure stuck between the coasts has proved counter to what’s conducive to severe weather. Northwesterly flow between the clockwise-spinning high over the Rockies and the counterclockwise-spinning low in the eastern part of the country has spread over the Plains, bringing cool, dry weather and shunting the instability — or “fuel” — offshore.
Thursday features a level 2 out of 5 risk of severe weather for Central Texas and much of western and central Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Abilene, Tex., regions west of San Antonio and Del Rio, Tex. A level 1 out of 5 marginal risk covers San Antonio, Austin and the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.
La Niña, characterized by a cooling of water temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, is broadly more favorable for severe weather over the Plains and for an active hurricane season in the Atlantic. Historically, a switch to El Niño, La Niña’s opposite, affects a more temperate severe weather season and a quieter hurricane season overall.
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