Caucasus countries Georgia and Armenia, whose economies unexpectedly boomed in the wake of the war in Ukraine, are now facing a reckoning.
Caucasus countries Georgia and Armenia, whose economies unexpectedly boomed in the wake of the war in Ukraine, are now facing the prospect of Western retaliation following a spike in trade with Russia.
The two former Soviet states near Russia's southern border surged to double-digit growth last year as an uptick in Russian workers, wealth and trade supercharged their wider post-Covid recoveries. In its latest economic outlook, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development noted that such countries were becoming so-called intermediated trade partners for the isolated state.
Spokespersons for the Georgian and Armenian governments did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment on the uptick, nor did they provide a breakdown of the specific goods traded with Russia. The EBRD now estimates that such "intermediated trade" accounts for around 4-6% of annualized gross domestic product in Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. That, in turn, is boosting the countries' "burgeoning logistics industries," and underpinning the appreciation of local currencies, it said.
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