Republicans appear to have a straightforward path to retaking the House. Explore the seats they could flip. Via fivethirtyeight.
Republicans appear to have a straightforward path to retaking Congress’s lower chamber. Indeed, FiveThirtyEight’s midterm forecast gives RepublicansBut knowing exactly which districts Republicans might swing is harder to say with certainty. The GOP’s path to a majority mostly runs through districts represented by Democrats but whose historic voting patterns suggest they are highly competitive or lean at least a bit to the right.
The map below shows the House seats that are most vulnerable to swinging from one party to the other based on our forecast.With the help of data from midterm elections between 1998 and 2018, we’ve identified the types of districts that have historically swung between parties and grouped them into four clusters based on the incumbent party and the district’s partisan lean.Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall.
Three groups consist of districts that Republicans could flip: conservative-leaning districts currently held by a Democrat, competitive “purpley” districts currently held by a Democrat, and liberal-leaning districts held by a Democrat. The fourth and final group consists of all districts currently held by Republicans that Democrats could flip.
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