The ‘Hot Hand’ Is a Real Basketball Phenomenon, But It Is Rare
The following essay is reprinted with permission from The Conversation, an online publication covering the latest research.
We are two researchers who study information sciences and operations and decision technologies. In our recent study, we examined whether players can indeed get hot in actual live-game situations. Our analysis showed that some players do get consistently “hot” during games and make more shots than expected following two shots made consecutively.
Using this model, we were able to simulate any shot by flipping a figurative coin that represents the probability any particular shot will go in. We could then quantify the hot hand effect by comparing the real world field goal percentage of a player after they were on a streak with the expected percentage obtained through simulating the same shots in our model.
When looking at the shots from all the qualified players, we found that if a person made the two shots prior, their chance of making the next shot was 1.9% percentage lower than the model predicted—their make rate would regress to the mean.
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