Battleground states may actually be the least likely places for non-major party candidates to draw support.
and former Republican Utah Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman at an event in New Hampshire next week. And No Labels isn’t the only one: Academic Cornel West is jockeying for the Green Party nomination.
That doesn’t mean well-funded third-party candidates with significant or universal ballot access don’t pose a major threat to Biden. Analysis of way-too-early pollingBut the Electoral College — which has otherwise favored Republicans in the Trump era — could blunt those effects. But third-party candidates don’t need to have large magnitudes of support to swing an election. Ralph Nader, the Green Party nominee in 2000, may have tipped that election away from Al Gore and toward George W. Bush by earning 2.7 percent of the national vote.
The traditional, core swing states rank much lower for third-party voting, according to this analysis. All but Nevada are in the bottom half: Wisconsin , Arizona , Michigan , Pennsylvania , North Carolina and Georgia .unless the two major-party candidates are unpopular and there’s a path to victory for a moderate alternative — West’s campaign for the Green Party nomination is already underway.
West could be more formidable, however. He’s a longtime public figure who could harness some of the liberal dissatisfaction with Biden’s presidency so far — particularly among otherwise solidly Democratic voting blocs.
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