Wall Street refers to the bond market as smart money because of its track record of predicting future economic outcomes.When analyzing bonds and stocks, traders look at shape of the yield curve to predict equity performance.
risk-on environment
that tends to appear during the early stages of the business cycle following a recession after the central bank has cut the benchmark rate and signaled it will keep them low for some time to support the recovery. Accommodative monetary policy creates a, lifting market-determined long-term rates amid improving prospects for future economic activity and inflation.
raising the federal funds rate to keep inflationary pressures in check . Volatility may be higher at times, but thisenvironment for stocks amid healthy earnings. It supports a constructive backdrop for technology, energy, and real estate.short term yields fall faster than long term yields, steepening the curve. This regime tends to be risk-off and often appears early in a recession when the outlook is highly uncertain, and the central bank is cutting short-term rates to stimulate the economy.
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