“It’s important to understand how something as cool as space travel actually impacts the Earth we live on.”
“There’s a lot of momentum currently going on, in terms of rocket launches and satellite constellations going up, so it’s important to start researching this to study what impacts we could potentially see,” says Maloney, who’s based at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chemical Sciences Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.
Maloney and his colleagues’ models start with typical launch trajectories, in which rockets blast a spray of tiny particles called aerosols out of their engine nozzles. The most dangerous exhaust component is black carbon, or soot. Rockets release tons of those microscopic particles in the stratosphere, especially between 15 and 40 kilometers above the ground, above where aircraft fly. Modern jet engines also expel black carbon, but in much smaller quantities.
Maloney and his team used a high-resolution climate model to predict the effects this pollution will have on the atmosphere, studying how aerosols of different sizes could heat or cool regions of space at different latitudes, longitudes, and altitudes. They found that within two decades, temperatures in parts of the stratosphere could rise by as much as 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, and that the ozone layer could thin slightly in the northern hemisphere.
By their accounting, each year, rocket launches collectively expel around 1 gigagram, or 1,000 metric tons, of black carbon into the stratosphere. Within two decades, that could easily ramp up to 10 gigagrams or more, thanks to the growing number of rocket launches.
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