Meanwhile, estimates for third-quarter growth have steadily been falling.
The U.S. economy shrank for a second quarter in a row this year, a third and final estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed Thursday—once again signaling the start of a technical recession even as economists predict signs of a slowdown will only grow in the coming quarters, likely prompting the government to officially declare the economy has entered a recession.... [+]
even as other experts say it's likely only a matter of time until the government officially recognizes it.The U.S. economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.6% in the second quarter—marking the second consecutive quarter of negative gross domestic product growth and thereby signaling the economy has entered a technical recession, the Bureau of Economic AnalysisThe figure was flat from an estimate last month but ticked up from the 0.9% decline estimated in July.
The government blamed the worse-than-expected figure on declines in residential investments , federal government spending and business inventories, but said an uptick in exports and spending helped economic activity improve from last quarter's decline of 1.6%. According to one working definition, a recession comprises two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, says Wells Fargo senior economist Tim Quinlan—but it's not the official one: Instead, the definitive call is up to the National Bureau of Economic Research, which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity” lasting"more than a few months.”
Quinlan points out four of the six factors the NBER relies on to declare a recession—production, income, employment and spending—continued to signal expansion through May, but he notes production appears to be “losing steam” and income gains are struggling to keep up with inflation, all while unemployment
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