Wait, is that good news or bad news?
Part thought experiment and part game theory, Caballero's admittedly out-there paper is also interesting because of the way he reached his conclusions: by using a formula that takes into consideration how technologic advances seem to make civilizations less likely to invade one another.
By using known data about the ways humans have historically invaded each others' territories and comparing it to the number ofin the Milky Way, this alien-focused conflict resolution researcher deduced that although there could be up to four hostile alien civilizations in our galaxy, Earth is vastly more likely to be destroyed by an asteroid than to be invaded by bloodthirsty aliens.. "We don’t know the mind of extraterrestrials.
That's a fair point. There's a whole lot of base assumptions going into Caballero's paper: first, that an extraterrestrial civilization would even be interested enough in humanity to invade us, and secondly that increases in technological advancements would make them less warlike and not more so.
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