Some bulls expect an improved economic outlook to send the S&P 500 to an all-time high later this year, but there are dangers lurking.
During the past week, the S&P 500SPX climbed above 4,500 for the first time in more than 15 months, after both the consumer price index and producer price index data showed cooler-than-expected inflation in June.
Some bulls expect an improved economic outlook to send the S&P 500 to an all-time high later this year. The large-cap equities gauge hit a record close of 4,796.56 in January, 2022, according to Dow Jones market data. The market consensus is that the Fed will raise its interest rate at least one more time before the year concludes. Future funds traders are pricing in an over 95% chance the U.S. central bank will raise its bench mark interest rate in July by 25 basis points to the range of 5.25% to 5.5% and a 23% likelihood that it will deliver one more hike after July, according to CME Fed Watch.
If the Fed is close to being done with increasing its benchmark interest rate, while other central banks are not, it would weigh on the greenback even further, noted Ladner. As the Fed’s balance sheet declines to levels seen before March, some banks will have to pay back the emergency loans to the Fed which have a tenor of up to a year, “that’s actually a net liquidity draw,” according to Bridges.
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