As the midterm election season comes to a close, Republicans project optimism as Democrats are hurt by voter dissatisfaction over the economy.
Friday’s attack on Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul, is the most recent example of the country’s increasing political violence.
“If both sides are attacking each other and [independents] are not getting any new information, they may decide, ‘I’m just unhappy with Biden.’ That’s the one conclusion they’ve managed to get to,” he said. Instead, Democratic Party committees and outside groups have largely stayed off the airwaves in the pricey Los Angeles market, which covers the entirety of five competitive districts, and have opted to use those resources to shore up incumbents elsewhere.
Early vote returns in California have lagged — just 19% of the state’s nearly 22 million registered voters had turned in their ballots as of Saturday, according to election data reviewed by the Democratic consulting firm Political Data Intelligence. That’s particularly troubling for Democrats, who have tended to outpace GOP voters in early balloting in recent elections. At this point in last year’s vote on whether to recallSome in the party blame the lack of exciting statewide campaigns.
More than 39 million early votes had been cast nationally as of Saturday afternoon, portending a high overall turnout. Since Democrats have been more likely to vote early than Republicans in recent cycles, Rosenberg said, the numbers are “a repudiation of the notion that the energy, intensity, is only going the Republicans’ way.”
But, he cautioned, it’s difficult to infer from the early-voting data what the outcome will be. As an example, he, when Democrats had a sizable early-voting lead, but a flood of GOP votes on election day ultimately left Biden with the barest of margins over President Trump.
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