The Supreme Court has so far defied expectations of a court fully captured by the right: in small cases — and some big ones — liberal justices are winning more often than the conservative majority. But the most divisive decisions have yet to be announced.
Perhaps most surprising, the alliance-shifting means that the court has yet to hand down any decisions this term along completely polarized lines – that is, with the six Republican-appointed justices all in the majority and the three Democratic-appointed justices all in dissent. Last term, there were 14 such polarized cases.
Based on the justices’ comments during oral arguments, the cases on affirmative action and the ability of businesses to rebuff same-sex weddings appear likely to come down along the standard 6-3 ideological split. If that happens, both will be landmark conservative victories and devastating blows to progressives.
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