Vice President Kamala Harris may be spending more time on Capitol Hill.
President Joe Biden's understudy, as president of the Senate, has already cast 26 tiebreaking votes for Democrats since the ticket took office on Jan. 20, 2021. That's due to the 50-50 Senate split between the parties. And with tightening Senate races, it's possible the Senate in the 118th Congress will again be split evenly.
On Sept. 23, FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast showed Democrats favored to hold their Senate majority at 72%, compared to Republicans’ chances of winning one at 28%. Those estimates mark a significant shift from earlier this year, when the same model showed Republicans more likely to win a Senate majority as recently as July. The same model in June had Republicans as high as 60% and Democrats at 40%, marking quite a reversal of political fortunes for the GOP.
“Pretty much every week, [Democrats have] either gained ground in our forecast or held steady,” Silver wrote. The model, he added, “does expect the political environment to get slightly better for Republicans between now and November.” Republicans have also been plagued by issues stemming from weak or first-time candidates in Senate races, who generally tend to be less successful at the ballot box. They have also had to contend with an investigation into sensitive documents found at the Mar-a-Lago estate of former President Donald Trump, who has campaigned for his chosen candidates as he teases a third presidential bid.
Although forecasts are shifting to favor Democrats in the final, crucial weeks of the cycle, Republicans told the Washington Examiner that running on issues such as inflation and crime prevention may still help them win a majority in the upper chamber.
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