'The long-promised Ukrainian counteroffensive is finally underway ... At the same time, the Russian answer to Ukrainian courage and Western armaments is about to take full effect,' Ross Douthat writes.
The body of Ukrainian soldier Vyacheslav Nalyvayko is carried out of St. Michael's Golden-Domed Monastery during a funeral in Kyiv, Ukraine on Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2022.The summer of war in Ukraine, while brutal for soldiers and civilians on the front lines, has been experienced from afar as a stalemate, depressing enough in its grinding sameness to slip out of American headlines for a time.
At the same time, the Russian answer to Ukrainian courage and Western armaments is about to take full effect. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline is shut down, Europe’s leader are scrambling to prepare for a potential $2 trillion surge in energy costs, and everyone is trying to predict the consequences — from a shallow recession to a “full stop” that threatens deindustrialization, from stiff-upper-lip support for Ukraine to populist rebellion.
If Ukraine continues to make military progress, if outright Russian defeat seems within reach, Europe will be able to endure its winter of discontent without an anti-war rebellion. On the other hand, if Ukrainian advances stall out and the war seems destined for a multiyear stalemate, then the Western political establishment will be forced to push harder for peace, or else find itself pushed out from below.
But there is a range of scenarios within this hoped-for future, and each presents dilemmas where realism and pessimism may be as important as optimism and resolve.
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