Global rice prices, now at their highest in 11 years, are set to rally further after India moved to boost payments to farmers, just as El Nino threatens yields in key producers and alternative staples get costlier for poor Asians and Africans
India accounts for more than 40% of world rice exports, which were 56 million tonnes in 2022, but low inventories mean any cut in shipments will fuel food prices driven up by Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year and erratic weather.
That comes despite a forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture for near-record output in all top six global producers — Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. "Rice prices have already been rising due to limited supplies," added Olam's Gupta. "If production decreases, there will be a rally in prices."
Weather in China, the top producer of the grain, has not been conducive for the early season crop but high stockpiles will balance supply and demand, said Rosa Wang, an analyst with Shanghai JC Intelligence.
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