Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic - Nature Medicine

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Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic - Nature Medicine
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Retrospective simulation of global COVID19 distribution scenarios shows that equitable and altruistic vaccine sharing strategies could have substantially reduced the global burden of SARSCoV2 infections and mortality. MattJKeeling warwickuni

and the risk of waning efficacy, vaccine sharing remains important: our model suggests that even late vaccine sharing, once wealthy countries had delivered all second doses, would have seen sizeable benefits in late 2021 and into 2022.

We estimate that increased vaccine sharing would have provided large benefits in low-income and lower-middle-income countries; this benefit comes at a cost to some high-income countries where increased or prolonged use of NPI measures would have been required to suppress disease in the short term. This substantial reduction in disease burden could have reduced the unmanageable waves of disease experienced by many of the poorest countries that are least well equipped to manage the pandemic.

This study is subject to several limitations. First, we concentrated on supply constraints. Assuming that a fixed amount of vaccine was available throughout 2021, the key issue addressed is where this should have been deployed. Supply has historically been a major factor causing heterogeneity in worldwide coverage—when vaccines first became available, the limited quantities produced were purchased primarily by wealthier nations.

In this analysis, we also assumed that vaccine efficacy profiles used are uniform across nations; however, many lower-income countries rely on substantially less effective vaccines than the more desirable counterparts employed by high-income countries. During the course of simulation, we tested sensitivity to vaccine efficacy, and, as expected, if redistributed vaccines were of lower or higher efficacy, the benefits of sharing would be reduced or increased, respectively.

With numerous different vaccines now being produced and the success of the COVAX scheme increasing vaccine availability

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