The recession watch for the U.S. economy has been going on about a year and a half now.
The recession watch for the U.S. economy has been going on about a year and a half now, and, if current indicators are sign, it likely has a ways to go. Wall Street has been forecasting an economic contraction since the early part of 2022, the result of confluence of factors.
If it doesn't, though, that will keep the Fed in a tightening stance and raise the chances of a more severe slowdown. Part of the Fed's policymaking formula is working on expectations. If consumers and businesses think inflation is rising, they'll adjust behavior accordingly. By that measure, things are going well. The June consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan showed that respondents expect inflation over the next year to run at a 3.
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