The U.S. strategy seems to be to “bleed Russia dry” and hope for a regime change in Moscow, but Niall Ferguson said this is a “very hazardous” strategy.
If it becomes clear over the next few weeks that Russian forces are too weary to pull off a decisive victory in the Donbas, Ferguson said Putin might find himself in an"extremely difficult" situation without an obvious offramp.
However, Phillips O'Brien of the University of St. Andrews thinks it is"unlikely, if not impossible" for Putin to resort to WMDs. Ferguson said, however, that Putin's goal is not necessarily the annexation of Ukraine, but instead to ensure that the country's attempt to become a"viable Western-oriented democracy" is a failure.Policymakers in Washington and Europe, who have insisted they will not take military action against Russia, will face a"huge dilemma" if Putin does escalate with nuclear or chemical weapons, Ferguson said, which he thinks is"really quite likely.
On Thursday, G-7 foreign ministers warned against"any threat or use" of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
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