Ryan Cooper: It’s time to start thinking about what it will take for Ukraine to support itself when the war ends.
on their Ukrainian debt through 2023, and possibly for another year after that. Private creditors have already granted it a two-year freeze.
That is all to the good and will prevent an immediate collapse of the Ukrainian economy — but more could be done. The simplest and most straightforward solution would be for the U.S. Federal Reserve to open a “swap line” with the Ukrainian central bank, which would allow it to trade hryvnia for dollars at a set price — essentially granting it a limited authority to print dollars. Doing so would require no additional increase to the federal budget.
By the same token, government creditors in the U.S. and Europe could simply forgive a big chunk of the debt rather than freezing repayments for a time. Far better to set Ukraine on a path to economic prosperity — and maximum production of badly needed food — rather than squeeze it for future debt payments it might not be able to produce anyway.
Ukraine clearly isn’t the only country that deserves major and sustained economic assistance — Afghanistan, Yemen, Pakistan and other crisis-plagued countries immediately come to mind. But there is a particular history here. When Ukraine’s economy was crushed after the financial crisis, Western institutions offered acoupled with requirements for crushing austerity that would have only deepened the crisis.
It's impossible to say that the current war would have been prevented entirely had Kyiv gotten the assistance it needed from the West. Putin’s motivations appear to be
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