Opinion by Nicholas Eberstadt: How Russia’s grim demographics could thwart Putin’s global ambitions
” — international patent applications divided by working-age population with higher education — was far below South Africa’s.
Russia’s record of creating value out of its human resources is miserable. It has the world’s ninth-largest population, but its exports of commercial services — marketed knowledge and skills, such as banking or insurance — ranked 26th in 2019, behind both Thailand and Turkey. Since the invasion of Ukraine, some of Russia’s best talent has been voting with its feet, heading abroad any way it can.
National wealth is indispensable to state power and human well-being, but the Russian system produces remarkably little private wealth. According to Credit Suisse, total private wealth in Russia in 2020 amounted toMeanwhile, much of the rest of the world beyond Russia’s borders is speeding ahead with improvements in health, education, innovation and wealth.
Putin’s recognition of this dismal reality may have stoked his appetite for ever-greater risk-taking in Georgia, Crimea and now Ukraine. His nuclear saber-rattling is the tactic of a leader playing a weakening hand. An open and liberal Russia could still prosper, but it cannot become a normal country under the rule of a petro-kleptocracy.
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