For over a decade, the largest scientific uncertainty about how the planet will respond to warming temperatures hasn’t come from how much carbon dioxide will be soaked up by the ocean or absorbed by the trees. It’s come, instead, from clouds.
The fluffy, whimsical collections of water droplets floating in the air have, for some time, confounded climate scientists and models alike. Scientist have long known that depending on how clouds respond to warming temperatures, the world could become even warmer or a little bit cooler. They just haven’t known which.
Which effect is stronger depends on the type of cloud. Cirrus clouds — high, wispy clouds visible in the distant atmosphere on relatively clear days — absorb and trap more radiation, warming the Earth. Stratus or stratocumulus clouds — plump, fluffy clouds that often hover over the ocean on overcast days — reflect more sunlight, cooling the Earth.
First, the high, wispy cirrus clouds that trap the Earth’s radiation are expected to shift upward in the atmosphere, to lower temperature zones. Thanks to a complicated relationship between clouds and the radiation of the Earth, that will increase the amount of radiation that the cirrus clouds trap in the atmosphere. “When they rise, their greenhouse effect, or warming effect, on the Earth tends to increase,” Myers said.global warming.
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