The future of the office remains in flux two years after the pandemic first unfolded. It may take another 18 months to get more clarity.
The day of reckoning for office buildings might be around the corner yet, even as commercial property prices press higher into record territory.
This roughly $3.2 trillion office sector slice of the U.S. commercial property market has held up during the pandemic, despite deep rooted changes taking hold since COVID first upended the workplace. “We expect 20-25% structural decline in office demand,” Ed Reardon’s research team at Deutsche Bank said Tuesday, in a weekly client note.
While office loan delinquencies remain low currently, there have been hints the situation could easily get worse. A recent survey by Barclays of senior decisionmakers found that global office demand could drop 14% from peak levels as more companies make hybrid work permanent. A look at past recessions Uncertainty about the office sector comes as the Federal Reserve and other central banks plan to raise key interest rates this year to tighten financial conditions in an attempt to cool high inflation, while also seeking to avoid a “hard landing” that can hurt jobs and the economy.
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