As the world progresses through this “energy transition,” one stark reality becomes increasingly clear: Mineral resources lie at the base of every source of power in current use by mankind.
” is the urgent need for copper supply to rise rapidly over the next dozen years to accommodate the needs of the energy transition. The study finds that global copper demand will roughly double by 2035, from the current 25 million metric tons today to nearly 50 MMt. That is the equivalent of demand for crude oil rising from its current ~100 million barrels per day market to 200 MMbopd in such a short time frame. It is a truly monumental challenge.
The good news here comes in the fact that copper is efficiently recyclable and can be substituted by other conducting metals in some instances. The bad news comes in the limited substitution opportunities that exist, the strain that a high degree of substitution efforts could put on global supplies of other minerals like aluminum and silver, and, as Hoffman told me, the reality that material substitution alone won’t be enough to fill the looming shortfall.
Nor can the gap be closed by the opening of new mines alone. Hoffmann sees some hope that the so-far-unseen permitting legislation supposedly agreed-to by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in his deal with West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin to get the just-passed “Inflation Reduction Act” done might help facilitate the opening of more copper mining operations in the U.S. in the coming years. But, he said, “the supply gap isn’t going to be closed by the openings of new mines alone.
The same issue of timing applies to the development of new technologies which can facilitate higher recovery rates from existing mines and recycling efforts: The big breakthroughs, if they come about, are years in the future. But demand is rising now.