By analyzing GPS data from almost 100 large earthquakes worldwide, scientists unearth a potential 2-hour rupture prediction signal.
Previous studies have hinted at the existence of a precursory phase of slow aseismic slip in faults before major earthquakes. Aseismic slips are slow, almost imperceptible movements along a fault plane that do not cause detectable ground shaking.
In an attempt to shed light on this puzzle, Quentin Bletery and Jean-Mathieu Nocquet from Côte d'Azur University, France, conducted a systematic global search for short-term precursory fault slip before large earthquakes.time series data from over 3,000 geodetic stations worldwide, they measured fault displacement leading up to 90 magnitude seven and above earthquakes.
According to the researchers, these findings suggest that many large earthquakes may initiate with a precursory phase of slip or that the observations represent the tail end of a much longer and more challenging-to-measure process of precursory slip.While their study offers promising evidence of a potential precursory signal before large earthquakes, Bletery and Nocquet express their cautions.
Bürgmann also stated that it is still uncertain whether such slow-slip accelerations are distinctively associated withor whether they could be accurately measured for individual events to provide actionable warnings.
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