A new study puts a number to the widespread fears that new construction causes displacement.
published this month by researchers with the Urban Displacement Project, which focuses on the Bay Area, where the addition of three new jobs for every one new house has, in recent years, given the region some of the highest home prices in the country. Comparing two decades of new apartments against the most detailed displacement data ever assembled, researchers led by Karen Chapple and Jackelyn Hwang conclude that new buildings are associated with more people moving in and out of neighborhoods.
After neighborhoods experienced new construction, the study found, churn increased at almost all income levels, with more people moving in and out, except for the highest-income residents, who became less likely to leave. That’s not so surprising—most of the new buildings studied are targeted at higher-income residents, after all.What’s surprising is that after new buildings were built, residents of lower income levels also continued to movethe neighborhood in great numbers.
Those trends flip only for “extremely low income” residents, who are slightly more likely to move out than in after new apartments get built. But even for them, in-migration increased slightly, and migration out rose by just 1 or 2 percentage points. If, in a normal year, 10 percent of low-income households move out, that number rose to 12 percent after new buildings showed up in the neighborhood. Displacement after new construction is real, researchers conclude, but it is very, very small.
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