A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.
Even as U.S. markets readjust to the harsher interest rate horizon that emerged from last week's Jackson Hole conference, storm clouds overseas are impossible to ignore for those fearful of global recession and eye-watering inflation.
Europe's blinding Russia-related energy price shock - where wholesale natural gas prices are more than five times where they were a year ago and electricty contracts for next year up to 10 times pricier than 12 months ago - reinforces the inflation, interest rate and recession risks across the Atlantic.
But the prospect of even higher inflation is goading the European Central Bank and Bank of England into higher interest rate rises, with futures markets now leaning to a 75bp hike from the ECB at its next meeting and a peak BoE rate next year in excess of the Fed at almost 4.5%. There was some relief that August euro zone inflation readings this week were leveling off but the coming winter energy shock means higher rates are due.
Global stock markets and U.S. futures caught a break on Tuesday after two days of heavy selling on Fed worries and hopes of some break in the European energy crunch.* U.S. September Consumer Confidence reportRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comBy Mike Dolan, editing by Gareth Jones [email protected]. Twitter: @reutersMikeD
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