Here are some betting observations about the five teams in the NL East (stats through Friday’s games).
The Mets rank third in baseball in runs per game despite being 14th in xwOBA, 22nd in hard-hit rate, and 27th in barrel rate. The Amazin’s have gotten by with excellent pitching to this point, but injuries to Max Scherzer and Tylor Megill will test the depth of their rotation.
One reason the Mets have been so efficient at the plate has been their play in clutch-hitting situations. They lead baseball in comeback wins and are second in clutch hitting by win probability added. You can expect some regression for this offense, and if the pitching depth fails to hold up, expect to sell high on the Mets in the coming weeks.New customers only. Must be 21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. Full T&C apply.New users only, 21 or older.
Atlanta ranks 28th in clutch hitting based on win probability added, per FanGraphs. That tends to be a very noisy indicator and one that doesn’t hold any predictive value. But it does suggest that with just average clutch hitting, the Braves would produce more offense. Atlanta ranks eighth in xwOBA as well.
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