As the market’s views on the timing of the start of the next recession have shifted to January 2023, the global head of currency research at Deutsche Bank has some guidance for investors.
Something big shifted in the market following Wednesday’s U.S. consumer-price index report, according to George Saravelos, global head of currency research at Deutsche Bank.
Using the peak in the Fed funds futures curve as a proxy for recession expectations, Saravelos pointed out that the market’s views on the timing of the start of the next recession have shifted substantially since February, when investors were bracing for a recession to arrive in December 2024. As of Thursday, futures traders were bracing for a recession to start in January 2023.
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