Republicans at every level of government are splintering over how far their abortion bans should go — and judging by the campaign trail, Graham’s proposal is yet another wedge. FiveThirtyEight explores:
said he does not support the billThe candidates who came out in favor of Graham’s proposal tend to be in a stronger electoral position — but that’s not uniformly true. Right now, Rubio is in the best position according to FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast, where he’s favored to win against Democrat Val Demings. The other Republican who co-sponsored the bill, Budd, is slightly favored, with a 62-in-100 chance of winning his race against Democrat Cheri Beasley.
The candidates who opposed Graham’s bill — or didn’t say anything about it — are in a weaker position in our forecast, generally speaking. The exception is Vance, who is favored to win the Ohio Senate race right now. Johnson’s race is a toss-up, Laxalt has a 39-in-100 chance, and things look worse for Oz and Bolduc, both of whom have slightly less than a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
The candidates’ responses make more sense when you look at public opinion on abortion in each of their states. Drawing on, we took a look at the share of registered voters who think abortion should be legal in some or all cases. Majorities of registered voters in every state think abortion should be legal in at least some cases, but support in some states is much higher than others.
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