Turkey's lira is likely to drop sharply and could near 30 to the dollar following next month's elections, bankers at JPMorgan have predicted, if it looks like only modest changes will be made to its unorthodox economic policies.
Turkey's tightly contested presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 are perhaps the most consequential in the century-long history of the republic.
In a "strong commitment" scenario they predicted the lira would initially fall to 24-25 to the dollar and to 26 by year end compared to around 19 currently."Initially, lira depreciates, driven by pent-up pressures of the large stimulus ahead of the elections. As financial repression is relaxed, locals increase FX portfolios, while foreigners wait for better valuation entry points.
They cautioned that, even with best intentions, the path to disinflate the economy will be protracted, while it was likely that the central bank would also aim to rebuild its FX reserves.
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