Is the U.S. in recession? No, at least not officially. Typically a real recession results in rapidly rising unemployment, falling incomes and a drop in spending. None of those things are happening right now.
The official scorecard for the U.S. economy contracted in the spring for the second quarter in a row, matching an old rule of thumb for when an economy is in recession.
“Job growth has averaged a very strong 375,000 over the last three months, businesses continue to invest, and consumer spending and household incomes are rising,” he noted. The slowdown in inventory growth subtracted 2 full percentage points from GDP and turned what would have been a positive number into a negative one. GDP shrank by 0.9%.
“While the economy may not be quite in a recession yet, the odds that we will be in a downturn soon have increased sharply,” said chief economist David Berson of Nationwide.Who are they? Eight economists, both liberal and conservative, who are members of a private organization called the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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