OPINION: As a financial adviser, I remain hesitant to recommend cryptocurrencies to my clients. Except for those with a high appetite for risk, who are big fans of cryptocurrencies and who can otherwise afford to lose the money.
As a financial adviser, I was surprised to see that Fidelity Investments is going to give employers the option to add bitcoin to their 401 menus this year. This is a big deal, given that Fidelity is a leading custodian in the retirement space and a dominant player in the investment marketplace.
There are no productive individuals, businesses or governments behind it, no reason for it to give a return, other than that it is scarce, because it is limited to 21 million coins. Scarcity is a reason many give for buying gold or silver – there is only so much of it. I am skeptical that most people will use crypto as regular currency because of the speculative nature. Who is going to spend crypto on a Tuesday to buy lunch if it might be worth 5% more later that afternoon? Even if it widely adopted and used like currency, I wouldn’t recommend it because we don’t invest in currencies, again because there is no history of positive real returns. We don’t buy dollars; we buy investments denominated in dollars.
You can also run into a major problem by just forgetting your password. Who hasn’t forgotten a password? We’ve all heard the story of the programmer who lost roughly $220 million because he couldn’t access his account. He says he’s at peace with it now. It has been used to aid the Ukrainian government and people, and they’ve needed all the help they can get. Maybe that leads to more change and innovation and productivity than we can see now? Maybe other uses will come up or the current uses will lead to more change for the better? Maybe completely unforeseen uses will become commonplace? I don’t know; I can’t predict the future. Bitcoin appears to be a big game changer – and I don’t think anyone knows exactly where it will lead.
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