Daily News | Hurricane forecasters say this won’t be a hyperactive season in the Atlantic — unless ....
Meteorologists for both the Weather Company and Colorado State noted the abnormal warming in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic could affect hurricanes in opposite ways. Thus, they said, their outlooks come with more than the usual dose of uncertainties.After three consecutive years of below-normal temperatures in the Pacific, a condition known as La Niña, water temperatures have returned to normal and are forecast to rise above average, or transition to El Niño.
El Niño tends to have a suppressing effect on Atlantic hurricanes. Its warmth perturbs the overlying atmosphere, generating upper-level winds that can shear apart incipient storms in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.However, as the Colorado State team noted, if El Niño fails to develop or isn’t particularly strong, “the potential exists for a busy Atlantic hurricane season.
That’s because the sea-surface temperatures in the “east and central Atlantic are much warmer than normal.” Warm water is the lifeblood of tropical storms.About last year After consecutive seasons that exhausted the naming alphabet, and with the Pacific waters still quite cool, the outlooks for 2022 suggested that the Atlantic Basin was in for yet another overactive, destructive season.“The surprisingly quiet August was really the big story,” said Klotzbach. Not a single tropical storm popped that month. He said that likely was the result of water temperature differences in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
Coastal residents and the U.S. taxpayers who help pay for the damages probably wouldn’t complain if 2023 turned out to be the start of a quiet period.
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