Many Russia experts are arguing that the dramatic uprising has exposed Putin’s weakness.
Members of Wagner group sit atop of a tank in a street in the city of Rostov-on-Don, on June 24.An unprecedented uprising took place over the weekend in Russia, where the leader of the Wagner Group mercenaries,, briefly led a mutiny against the Russian military and seemingly brought the country to the brink of civil war.
She also adds that Prigozhin “was caught off-guard by Putin’s reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary,” thus necessitating the sudden about face on Saturday. And while the events struck a “severe blow” to Putin and his regime, it’s not the end of their world, either:
The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian MoD. Suggestions that Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin’s response, and Lukashenko’s mediation were all staged by the Kremlin are absurd.
The Kremlin struggled to respond quickly in the information space and residents in Rostov-on-Don residents did not oppose Wagner and in some cases greeted them warmly — not inherently demonstrating opposition to Putin but at minimum acceptance of Prigozhin’s actions. Finally, the Kremlin’s apparent surprise at Prigozhin’s move does not reflect well on Russia’s domestic intelligence service, the FSB.
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