In 2021, the average sales price of a home in the U.S. was $357,100. As of May of this year, the average is $414,200, data from the National Association of Realtors shows.
Fixed mortgage rates track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, and not the Fed’s key federal funds rate — at least not directly. But both 10-year yields and the federal funds rate are moving higher in response to inflation. Essentially, investors are demanding more money to get ahead of further price increases.
The upshot: As long as inflation remains hot, the housing market will remain expensive and increasingly out of reach for average Americans. But mortgage rates are unlikely to go much higher than 7%, according to Bank of America managing director Jeana Curro, who tracks the housing market for the bank. At the moment, Curro said, lenders are demanding a higher premium because of the volatility financial markets have been experiencing, and the price uncertainty that such volatility causes.
But at some point, housing could become so unaffordable that the market completely freezes up. Assuming bond yields stabilize, lenders may begin to soften their terms., according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index which tracks changes in real estate prices. The housing group Redfin also reported the number of homes sold had decreased by 23% year-on-year in July.
Referring to mortgage interest rates potentially topping out at 7%, Curro said:"7% feels about right."
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