Assuming we're in an El Niño next winter (which seems more likely by the day), let's separate fact from fiction about how that could affect the storm-weary West:
This warmer water near the equator in the Pacific Ocean can affect weather patterns thousands of miles away.But that's not a guarantee, as past El Niños have shown.to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists.
The classic El Niño winter tends to be wetter than average through much of the southern U.S., from California to the Carolinas, due in part to a stronger, more southern jet stream track.Here's what El Niño precipitation typically looks like These are precipitation anomalies from November through April averaged through all El Niños from 1950 through 2022. The green and blue shadings denote areas increasingly wetter than average in that time period while those in yellow and orange shadings show areas increasingly drier than average in that time period.suggest this upcoming El Niño could eventually become moderate or strong, meaning the equatorial Pacific water becomes at least 1 or 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than average.
This November-April precipitation anomaly map is the same as the map shown earlier, but only for strong El Niños.. We've not had an El Niño since fall 2018 through early summer 2019. This El Niño was weak, but as you can see in the map below, California and much of the West, except the Pacific Northwest, was wetter than average that winter and spring.
The precipitation maps shown above are averages over several El Niños. But taking a look at precipitation during each of the eight strong El Niños tells a different story.
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